### Odds of High Priest lithification

Posted:

**Sat Jun 27, 2009 11:25 pm**I did a little bit more Mathhammer for the HP odds of turning to stone, and since my first attempt was pretty much some back-of-the-envelope noodling, here's an update with a real probability formula:

The general formula for determining the odds of independent events (i.e. dice rolls) on multiple trials can be found with the following formula:

[N!/(N-M)!*M!] x p^M x [(1-p)^(N-M)]

Where N is the number of attempts, M is the number of successes, and p is the probability of the independent event.

I've assumed 12 casting attempts, using a 6 sided die (duh)

The odds of zero 1's : 11.22%

Odds of exactly one 1 : 26.92%

Odds of exactly two 1's : 29.61%

Odds of exactly three 1's : 19.74%

Odds of four or more 1's: 12.52%

In other words, there is a 32.26% chance that a HP will roll at least three 1's if he casts twice in each magic phase of the game. If he takes the Arcane Apparatus, there is a 12.52% chance that he will roll at least four 1's.

Just wanted to get that out there since my first calcs were more imprecise.

The general formula for determining the odds of independent events (i.e. dice rolls) on multiple trials can be found with the following formula:

[N!/(N-M)!*M!] x p^M x [(1-p)^(N-M)]

Where N is the number of attempts, M is the number of successes, and p is the probability of the independent event.

I've assumed 12 casting attempts, using a 6 sided die (duh)

The odds of zero 1's : 11.22%

Odds of exactly one 1 : 26.92%

Odds of exactly two 1's : 29.61%

Odds of exactly three 1's : 19.74%

Odds of four or more 1's: 12.52%

In other words, there is a 32.26% chance that a HP will roll at least three 1's if he casts twice in each magic phase of the game. If he takes the Arcane Apparatus, there is a 12.52% chance that he will roll at least four 1's.

Just wanted to get that out there since my first calcs were more imprecise.