2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

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2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby -The Fabulous Orcboy » Wed Nov 01, 2006 5:05 am

Already I'm tired of 2006, I just want the election to be over already.

But the last month or so has been interesting because it has very clearly 'winnowed out' several folks who *were* being considered possible contenders in 2008.

On the (D) ticket:

Kerry is almost certainly toast after his most recent foot-in-mouth.
Warner has bowed out.
Obama is sniffing around very conspiciously, but this suggests mostly that he's interested in the VP ticket, not the POTUS job.

This leaves Hillary (and all her baggage) in the lead, Edwards (poverty-boy!) possibly next, then a slew of other contenders. If Gore steps in early enough, though, he'll be a strong counterweight to Hillary.

On the (R) ticket:

Allen is basically out, whether he wins or loses in Virginia.
Pataki and Romney are basically out, too. Not that they were considered to have a good shot at a nomination.
McCain is starting to lose traction in the 'middle' as he sucks up to the far right.

McCain still has the early lead, but there's also Huckabee as the dark horse, Giuliani as a much-mentioned contender, and Brownback as the 11th-century throwback
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby -Thrax » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:09 am

:lol

You guys are so screwed on the Democrat ticket. Don't get me wrong: as a Canadian, I'd like nothing more than a Democrat in office. But nobody on that slate (and I'm sure you're generally right about it) is at all the material needed. They're almost laughable.

Good luck though. :rolleyes

T
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby -NightGoblinHordeLeader » Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:08 pm

If Giuliani runs he wins.

God save America from another 8 years of Republicans padding their oil/electricity fed bank accounts.
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby VectorAWX3 » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:37 pm

Giuliani doesn't win. He CAN'T win the nomination. He's far too left on social issues and gun control.

And I like padding my bank account, thank you very much. :) How the hell do you think I can afford this insanely expensive hobby?
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby -Papa Gino » Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:46 pm

...given the last few "political" threads on these boards, I can't wait to see what takes place in this one...

Nevertheless - let's play. Note that none of this is intended to reflect my opinions of a given candidate or of his/her positions. Also keep in mind that it's 2006, and a lot of things can change in the next 12 months or so.

The Democrats

- The DNC is still tripping over itself to play soft coverage (in football terms) while attempting to out-Mussolini Mussolini (to quote a very old WiF batrep). In other words, move the party's platform to the right but still refusing to hit below the belt (all the recent "you messed up in Iraq" attack ads notwithstanding).

- Separately, the DNC still seems to be more or less within the Clintons' sphere of influence, which is somewhat curious given that Terry McAulife is no more.

- Thus, the DNC is basically backing Hillary, at least unless she has a really bad screw-up (e.g. bad returns in the Senate election, horrendous polling by the end of 2007, etc.).

- Hillary's strategy has been to pander to both sides (the anti-war liberals - at times indirectly, through Wes Clark and such - and the pro-war conservatives); it helps that good old Rupert (Murdoch) is playing a wait-and-see game with both her and the Republicans such as McCain.

- Given Hillary's recent Senate debate (watched, taped and re-watched by political consultants everywhere), there is a perception (that I agree with) that she is vulnerable in the primaries. The charisma just isn't there (even if one subscribes to the very same policy views - assuming said views can be pinned down). This is consistent with her previous record.

- Kerry - notwithstanding the recent bru-ha-ha, which will disappear from the news cycle quickly enough (unless and until Kerry becomes the actual Dem nominee in 2008) - remains somewhat of a spoiler. He has been consciously moving towards the left of the Party, though not very efficiently, and will likely make a play in the primaries citing his electability (lookit - 70k more voters in Ohio and I would have been president...). He also has money, to some extent, which helps - and cares not a whit about the DNC, which, he feels, pulled a real screw-job on him in 2004.

- Feingold was at one point seriously thinking about throwing his hat in. The issue being - does he want to go against the DNC's wishes and go up against Hillary? Ultimately, unlikely.

- Edwards will wait until he can tell which way the primaries are leaning. Then he'll either go all out or try to audition for a VP position.

- I would die from laughter if Lieberman decided to run. Hey, stranger things have happened.

- Obama is an Edwards clone - wait and see a) who else enters and b) how well/badly they're polling. Then it's either a VP spot or all-out.

- Gore has to be thinking about it. His main problem is money, which no-one would give him in 2004. As the Party becomes more polarized between the DNC and the lefties, he might make a play after all.

So what will happen? The primaries will degenerate into a "us vs. Hillary" contest, potentially (but not necessarily) splitting the party. She has, in the view of many strategists, shown weakness in the recent debate, and the national polls have been moving in the wrong direction for her as of late (that said, she can adapt and polls can turn on a dime when properly stimulated). A lot depends on who ultimately decides to run (does Kerry enter? Gore? Obama?), but you're probably looking - as of today - at a 50% chance of Hillary and a 25/25 split between a "left" candidate and a "safe-but-not-Hillary" candidate. [Someone Bill Richardson-esque, but not quite Jon Corzine-esque.]

The Republicans

- Ugh. McCain has the media presence and the "non-partisan-slash-moderate" brand. The liberals aren't as in love with him these days (how dare he betray...err, follow his principles...), but he's no longer gunning for that as he was when faced with a more conservative opponent in the Primaries. His goal is to annoint himself as successor, shutting everyone else out as early as 2007, and to do that he does and will play to the base as per Rove & Co., while occasionally demonstrating his "independence" to keep the independents and right-wing Dems confused.

- A member of the Bush cabinet and/or family? But who? Condi can't hack it - she's been a "staffer" rather than a "leader" all her life. Cheney doesn't like to be very visible (and is old), Rumsfield is too polarizing. Jeb Bush (or anyone named Bush) won't work - not in 2008. There are a few others, but no-one really credible.

- Boehner? He just wants to be Speaker. Frist? Didn't do well on This Week a while back, and has too many skeletons in that closet. Any other particularly charismatic senators/congressmen? None that I can think of at this point.

- Pataki is a joke. Giuliani will depend on whether he can get the base to like him, which means estimating how important national security will be in the "base" voters' minds in 2008 (not today - in 2008) . If there's a bigger war on, maybe.

- The RNC is another spoiler here. Bush's faction has been increasingly operating to the right of where the RNC and its main sponsors (economic or religious) want to be. This is why someone like McCain - a conservative who knows how to pander to both the right and the left - sounds like a good compromise choice.

So what will happen? Unless the RNC decides to mount an open rebellion (which it _could_, if, say, the U.S. loses a couple of brigades in the space of a week, or if some other major calamity takes place), the primaries should be tame, with one 800 pound gorilla candidate and a few small fry (Frist...he wants it, and he's got nothing to lose by trying). McCain looks like a clear front-runner at this point, probably at 80% probability. And he really, really wants it, 'cause this could well be his last chance (combination age, the "what have you done for me lately" factor, and the likelihood of a better-polling alternative emerging).

So what of the general election?

Depends on a _lot_ of variables, most of which won't be set until a year from now (if not a year and a half). If we do have a McCain/Hillary contest, McCain wins, hands down. [Based on the perception today, Hillary will lose to whoever - hence the much higher likelihood of spoiler candidates in the Democratic primaries.] If it's McCain vs. Whoever, or Whoever vs. Whoever, then the election can't be called until we get through the 2008 primaries (in my view).
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby mattbird » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:32 pm

President Hillary Clinton. Jeez, I thought Bush II was bad... the thought of her in charge makes me cringe in fear.

I think you are all wrong, and there will be other, less heard of candidates coming in. The field is seriously weak. McCain would be a great president, but he could never win the primary. Plus, he has that ugly bump on his neck. People don't vote for ugly
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby VectorAWX3 » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:46 pm

Quote:
People don't vote for ugly.
:rollin That is actually a very astute political observation. It's been true ever since the Nixon/Kennedy televised debates. (seriously, look at every election since, and tell me how many times the uglier candidate won).

I think McCain could win the primary assuming the Rove hackjob machine isn't going to chew him up again.

But hey.. won't it be k00l if Hillary wins, then Jeb wins, then Chelsea wins, then George P Bush wins? Forget the United Stated of America. It'll be the United States of Bush and Clinton. Awesome! I'd vote for them all just to see it happen. :evil
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby -Jarrett » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:16 pm

I predict Kerry will refine his comedic style and sweep the '08 primaries with a live stand up tour
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby -The Fabulous Orcboy » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:37 pm

Gino I think leaves out a couple more details about the (R) ticket:

A bad mid-term this year helps McCain, as it destroys the power-base (and credibility) of Rove & Co, his biggest behind-scenes opponents.

But if the GOP fractures as a result of a bad 2006 showing, this could result in a vicious primary between McCain (the economic and foreign policy conservative) and the annointed of the Fundamentalist movement (currently Brownback). In that atmosphere, there's no way Giuliani wins.

If the GOP doesn't fracture, and tries to swing back to the middle, then McCain is going to face a possible challenge from the left. Some of the players in the GOP seem to be banking on that possibility already: Mehlman, for example. The obvious choice from the left is America's Mayor, Giuliani. But I agree that he has way too many negatives to have a good shot at a nomination, regardless of which party he's in.

And there's always the possibility of a dark-horse 'compromise' candidate. Assuming he keeps the weight off, Mike Huckabee is decently good-looking, younger than McCain (who will be 72), not a fundie like Brownback, and pretty much a match for the GOP's stated ideals and vision.

=====

I agree with Matt -- McCain would be a very credible candidate, and given how I was a big supporter of the guy in 2000, I'll probably continue to be a supporter.

The other thing to consider, of course, is the make-up of Congress. In 2008, the GOP Senate is going to be playing much, much more defense than offense (many more seats to defend).

So between the desire not to have dynastic succession (Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton), and a desire to never again have a single party in control of WH and Congress (D or R), plus marginally more support for McCain than Hillary, I'd suspect McCain to win decisively in a match against him and Hillary, though probably not a total landslide.

That's absolutely going to be the dynamic on the (D) side of the primary process -- everyone positioning themselves to be the anti-Hillary. At the moment, Edwards and Gore probably have the best position, but it's still WAY early.

=====

Talking about personal charisma and TV personality, though, is much more fun.

Clinton: virtually none. Apparently she's riveting in person, but no way you can take advantage of that kind of face-to-face talent in a national election in the 21st century. Only Kerry has clearly less personality on camera.

Edwards: fantastic on and off-camera, but comes across to a *significant* number of people as flighty, shallow, fake, and basically it's because he looks much too young. He'll be 55 in '08, but he looks like he's maybe (!) 35. If he could manage to get some grey hair going in the next two years, that might help.

Gore: a little wooden, but has gotten better and better over the past few years. All those Global Warming presentations have really helped his public speaking skills.

Richardson: Erratic speaker, can occasionally be electric but frequently rambles. Looks like the pudgy nerdy kid at school that everyone liked (and that some people picked on) -- that's almost certainly going to be a negative, because it means he doesn't look Elder Statesman.

---------

McCain: clear winner in the bunch -- has gravitas, looks like a kindly yet serious grandfather figure, basically the formula Ike used to win the Presidency. Has all kinds of credibility on foreign policy. Most moderates will probably look past or ignore his very conservative domestic record.

Giuliani: all the New Yorkers know him already. Extremely aggressive TV personality, simultaneously a strength and weakness. Has a knack for being extremely riveting, even while he's biting off your head.

Huckabee: soft-spoken charmer. Very relaxed and non-threatening, but speaks clearly and positively exudes empathy and intelligence. His TV personality is clearly one reason why he's considered a credible dark-horse candidate. (May end up the VP on a ticket)

Brownback: terrifying. A national campaign with Brownback would doom the GOP's shot at the '08 presidency. He's a passionate, enthusiastic speaker, but given his features and his eyes (the eyes, man, the eyes!), he easily comes across as a bit of a fanatic. Combine with the fact that he would openly have the support of the fundamentalist movement, and his appeal to moderates will basically evaporate.

------

Wow, is this ever a weak field. Hope for everyones' sake that there's some surprise candidate(s) waiting in the wings
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Re: 2008 Presidential Nominee Prophesying

Postby mattbird » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:43 pm

I would think that Gore would easily beat this field if he ran. But he won't.

Nidal- actually, until Gore and Kerry lost to Bush 2, the taller candidate had won every election since the invention of television. IIRC
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